1 research outputs found
Quantifying and Explaining Machine Learning Uncertainty in Predictive Process Monitoring: An Operations Research Perspective
This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning
methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial
intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of
operations research. The proposed framework adeptly addresses common
limitations of existing solutions, such as the neglect of data-driven
estimation for vital production parameters, exclusive generation of point
forecasts without considering model uncertainty, and lacking explanations
regarding the sources of such uncertainty. Our approach employs Quantile
Regression Forests for generating interval predictions, alongside both local
and global variants of SHapley Additive Explanations for the examined
predictive process monitoring problem. The practical applicability of the
proposed methodology is substantiated through a real-world production planning
case study, emphasizing the potential of prescriptive analytics in refining
decision-making procedures. This paper accentuates the imperative of addressing
these challenges to fully harness the extensive and rich data resources
accessible for well-informed decision-making